By Abdullahi Alhassan, Kaduna
The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) has raised alarm over the integrity of Nigeria’s
electoral process, declaring that the 2023 general and off-cycle elections dealt a severe blow to public confidence in both the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary.
Unveiling its report titled “Telescoping Nigeria’s Elections: 2023 Election Cycle in Perspective” at the CISLAC Conference Hall in Abuja, TMG Chairman, Auwal Ibrahim Musa Rafsanjani, described the elections as a missed opportunity to entrench democratic credibility through reforms and technology.
“The 2023 General Election was expected to be a benchmark for transparency and credibility, especially with the introduction of BVAS, IReV, and legal reforms,” Rafsanjani stated.
“But instead, it left many Nigerians questioning the very future of democracy in our country.”
The report directly blamed INEC for undermining the electoral process, pointing to its failure to transmit results from polling units electronically, contrary to provisions in the Electoral Act 2022.
According to the report, this lapse eroded public trust and created room for allegations of result manipulation.
“At the National Collation Centre, the INEC Chairman proceeded with result collation despite objections from party agents seeking verification of electronically transmitted results.
“This blatant disregard for transparency undermined the credibility of the entire process,” the report noted.
Rafsanjani did not spare the judiciary, warning that its growing role in deciding election outcomes has blurred the line between democratic choice and legal technicalities.
“More than ever, the judiciary became a key player in electoral outcomes, but its credibility has come under intense scrutiny. We are now forced to ask: are elections won at the polls or in courtrooms?” he queried.
The report also documented alarming trends of pre-election malpractice, including vote buying during primaries, widespread violence, and ethnoreligious mobilisation, particularly in Northern Nigeria, where voter turnout was notably low due to public disillusionment with governance.
While technological tools like BVAS were meant to improve the process, the report found that “widespread failure to upload results to the IReV portal was reported across many polling units,” directly violating the electoral law and weakening the process’s transparency.
Looking ahead to 2027, TMG warned that Nigeria’s political space is becoming increasingly compromised.
Rafsanjani decried the trend of politicians defecting across party lines, which he described as a drift toward a de facto one-party system.
“The credibility of the 2027 elections is already being threatened,” he said.
“Democratic competition is being stifled, and the electorate’s right to choose among alternatives is under attack.”
The report reserved special criticism for the off-cycle governorship elections in Kogi, Bayelsa, and Imo states, which it said raised more red flags than assurances.
Although some improvements in security management and voter turnout were acknowledged, TMG cited continued misuse of security personnel by politically exposed individuals.
TMG called for intensified support for electoral institutions, civil society, and credible oversight mechanisms. Rafsanjani also urged citizens to recognise the connection between flawed elections and poor governance.
“For all the resources—from citizen involvement to international support and government spending, Nigeria must redirect its efforts towards ensuring that the 2027 elections are free, fair, and credible,” he concluded.
The report serves as a stark reminder that unless urgent reforms are enacted, Nigeria’s democracy may continue to slide further into crisis.
